Great news today that Aotearoa New Zealand’s transmission rate for Covid-19 is R0.48. A week from today we move down from Alert Level 4 to a slightly less restrictive Level 3. I’m glad we’re staying at L4 for another few days. 🦠
💬 John Philpin a new site today shows that in America CT is .42 and all other states are 0.7 and up to ND at 1.7
Pratik @JohnPhilpin Aren’t only 15 states below 1? In fact, states are moving up compared to last week @miraz
Matt Huyck @johnphilpin @pratik Worth noting, from The COVID Tracking Project, where the data come from:
Because we get the bulk of our data directly from state public health authorities, we’re as reliable as they are
The page linked above gives more details.
Pratik @fgtech Well, most have pointed out this fallacy. States that are not doing enough testing are showing lower rates which may be wrong but multitudes. Even if we count deaths, unless we count deaths that were not just of people that tested positive (like NYC just did), we may never know the true extent of this pandemic. @johnphilpin
💬 John Philpin The site I linked to is calculating ‘the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person.’ - so nothing to do with death and EVERYTHING to do with how good tracking methodology and execution is.
I have faith in the NZ tracking - though despite them saying that their tests per million population is one of the best in the world - I don’t see that data reflected in the sites I look at - but still it seems to be fully 50% better than the USA.
AND if you aren’t testing - then tracking is definitely not going to be accurate.
Again - size of country and population helps ...
As for the future - right now
N Dakota is 2.2
S Dakota is 0.8
I wonder what the ND/SD border is going to look like if those figures don’t start trending towards each other?
David Johnson @JohnPhilpin That makes me think of those days when it was possible to smoke in the back of an airplane, or one half of a cinema. 🙄
Philip Brewer @JohnPhilpin It would be interested to see those state graphs sorted by whether the goverer is a Democrat or a Republican.
💬 John Philpin @philipbrewer funny ... I often think that about so much data. But then you get into the nuances of whether governor was stopped or accelerated by a democrat / Republican legislature.
But yes .. governors would be a start.